Health in 2040

Our Health Brain Trust, which brings together some of the world’s top experts in health, has provided us with the following vision for health in 2040:

  • Age-related diseases’ and syndromes’ emergence is mitigated and postponed. Most people live to 110+ in good health.
  • Healthcare focus has shifted from sick-care to preventative-care.
  • Healthcare is holistic and biopsychosocial, encompassing physical, emotional, and social well-being, alongside biology, psychology, and socio-environmental factors.
  • Inequities and biases in global healthcare have been eliminated, and access to treatment, primary and specialized, is universal and affordable.
  • Patients’ data is collected and shared with healthcare providers, researchers, and the patients themselves with unwavering respect for ethics, legal standards, and empathy.
  • Healthy living is prevalent through universal access to clean, diverse, and nutritious resources and environments and empowered users making healthy choices.
  • The prevalence and spread of deadly and/or infectious diseases are in decline or effectively managed through rapid and equitable treatment distribution.
  • Healthcare is managed with a borderless mindset - sharing data, expertise, and technologies, and enabling rapid deployment to the hardest to reach populations.

This vision will help us prioritize barriers, which in turn inform breakthroughs and prize ideas in the health domain.

It isn’t set in stone! We will continue to edit and refine the vision during the Global Visioneering process, so please share your feedback and suggestions with us throughout.

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Hi @ymedan and @SArora - We would love to hear your feedback on the listed vision for health in 2040.

One thing I’d like to suggest is that preventive healthcare needs to happen through real-time, passive tracking of health - minimizing user input is key to having good enough data. Examples include implantables and peripherals working together to give the data without the user putting extra work. This type of data will allow us to move healthcare from universal and reactive to proactive and personalized (precision medicine).

My team and I are working on building the operating system of the body using health data users are already collecting from their wearables, labs and peripherals with an eye towards introducing a multibiomarker implantable.

A simple idea that helps guide our through process of what we want to build:

“ I don’t want a system that tells me I fell on the floor. I want a system that tells me my gait has changed and I’m at risk of falling on the floor.”

Once we have a reliable form of the above for the most important health risk factors, we can move into preventive treatment at the right time and personalized for each user.

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While doing something about longevity is implicit in the first bullet point, I think this is worth mentioning more explicitly. A part of this vision should be that people have access to anti-aging treatments (in whatever form they are available by 2040). Not only is dying a pretty bad thing, age is a risk factor for just about every major disease, so fighting it is probably the most universal health-promoting intervention.

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Precision Medicine

Thanks for your comment, @mitjal! There’s ongoing discussion about this: should we focus on aging per se, which would delay the onset of age-related diseases, or should we focus on curing those diseases?

We don’t have to choose right now - we have room for 3 separate ideas for XPRIZEs in the health domain.

Maybe we should even leave it open altogether and design a prize that promotes longer, healthier life, and teams would compete with proposals for how to achieve it?

I guess a competition along this lines would have to be evaluated on improving some biomarkers (because waiting for people to develop chronic diseases or die is not really feasible), and this could be achieved with preventive medicine, lifestyle interventions or anti-aging treatments (there is actually no clear divide between these things). This could be one prize.

One could be about data, and one about equity, affordability and such. Assuming you want to cover the topics in the first post.

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Following acronym is health friendly too.
FORGIVE:
A SPIRITUAL ACRONYM FOR GOOD HEALTH
Forgiveness, Optimism, Resilience, Gratitude, Introspection , Veneration, and Empathy have several physical and mental health benefits as described below.
(i)improve health, quality of life, sleep, self-esteem and longevity.
(ii)reduce despair of old age decline and stabilize our thoughts toward death and dying even if physical health is failing.
(iii)inculcate healthy life styles like proper diet, exercise, de-addiction and access to medical care.
(iv)give benefit in emotional disorders, body pains, high blood pressure, heart disease, diabetes, cancer, cognitive impairment, emphysema, cirrhosis, pneumonia.
(v)mechanism of these benefits is through lowering of stress hormone cortisol, cellular inflammatory markers like C-reactive protein, interlukin-6 and by improving cardiovascular, nervous, immune and kidney functions.

@temmmmm, @blreitze, @Lemar, @efoehr - it would be great to have your input here as well!

Specifically, I’m curious to your views on the points about shifting from sick-care to preventative-care and transitioning to a more holistic model of health(care). Do you think this is ambitious enough for 2040? Too ambitious? What stands in our way of realizing that vision?

@farahelsiss, @katyaklinova, and @eakinyi, I’d like to ask your opinion of the bullet points about data-sharing and healthcare being managed with a borderless mindless. I think these are two points where AI would be relevant. What do you think? Are there potential breakthroughs here an XPRIZE could incentivize?

This is a comprehensive and worthwhile list of objectives, certainly coherent with 2030 SDG 3.
I don’t think that I can add any valuable item to the list.

Achieving it will be a daunting challenge, not so much because of science but because of social, political and economic factors. In fact, a lot of science-backed knowledge for mitigating chronic diseases like Diabetes Type 2 exists today. Yet, it is hardly becomes the norm and standard-of-care because it lacks financial incentives.

As for using the term “Longevity” and “Anti-aging” interventions, I tend to disagree. Aging processes start around the age of 25-30 so maintainingg health resiliency is part of a desired lifestyle embedded in the list. Having equitable and affordable access to resources that enable such a health promoting lifestyle is the challenge.

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Thanks @ymedan for sharing your thoughts.

We would like to add concrete goals to this vision where possible.

For example, when we talk about eliminating inequities and biases in global healthcare, how would we measure that?

When we write that the prevalence and spread of deadly and/or infectious diseases are in decline or effectively managed by 2040, what does that mean? Can we put some figures on that?

@Lizzy_2020, @bngejane, @coronasurveys, I wonder if you have any thoughts on that?

I think one of the big things we’ll want to achieve by 2040 – and something to which an XPRIZE competition could conceivably contribute – is shift from sick-care to preventative care.

@sarahb, @KarenBett, @Esther_Colwell, do you have recommendations for how to measure success in that regard? I imagine precise health data would play a role, and I remember you advised on our Gender Data Gap Prize Design.

@aospan, @benhammersley, and @BruceGerman, you may have thoughts on this from a food and nutrition point-of-view. How would we integrate healthier living in a preventative care system. Should we?

We’re still tweaking this vision, both the make the language a little more to-the-point and to provide concrete data points where possible.

Current thinking is that the main vision would consist of several short bullet points, on which you could then “double-click” to get specifics.

Any feedback/suggestions you might have would be appreciated!

  • Living to 100 in good health isn’t the exception but the rule.
    1- Aging has been universally delayed and healthspans are extended.
    2- Age-reversal treatments are available.
    3- Age-related diseases are becoming rare.

  • Healthcare focus has shifted from sick-care to preventative-care.
    1- More money is spent on preventative care than sick-care.

  • Healthcare has become holistic and personalized.
    1- AI combats and surfaces biases in healthcare.
    2- DNA sequencing data has been collected and analyzed from tens of millions of patients, providing faster and more accurate diagnoses

  • People are able to understand their health status at any given time.
    1- Wearables? Body sensors?
    2- Patients’ data is collected and shared with healthcare providers, researchers, and patients themselves with unwavering respects for ethics, legal standards, and empathy.

  • Everyone has access to essential health services.
    1- Inequities in global health…
    2- Patients can be monitored, and in some cases treated, remotely and in real-time.

  • A point on healthy living environments
    1- Access to clean water is universal.
    2- Hygiene, waste…
    3- Point on clean air. Asthma and chronic respiratory disease?

  • Pandemics are predicted and prevented.
    1- 50% of new variants and their spread rate are detected in real-time.
    2- Immunization production and distribution capacity is available everywhere.

Here is the latest version for your feedback:

  • Living to 100 and over – in good health – is no longer exceptional. Aging has been universally delayed and healthspans are extended. Age-reversal treatments are universally available. Age-related diseases are becoming rare.
  • Healthcare focus has shifted from sick-care to preventative care. More money is spent on preventative care than sick-care. Illness is detected early, enabling proactive intervention.
  • Healthcare is holistic and biopsychosocial, encompassing physical, emotional, and social well-being alongside biology, psychology, and socio-environmental factors.
  • People are empowered to make wise health decisions. People are able to understand their health status at any given time. Patients’ data is collected and shared with healthcare providers, researchers, and patients themselves with unwavering respect for ethics, legal standards, and empathy.
  • Everyone has access to essential health services. Inequities in global health have been eliminated. Access to treatment – primary and specialized – is universal and affordable. Treatments are developed at a rapidly accelerated pace. Patients can be monitored, and in some cases treated, remotely and in real-time. Digital-first care guides patients to the appropriate level of care.
  • Everyone has access to clean, diverse, and nutritious resources and environments. Access to clean water, sanitation, and waste management is universal. The majority of the world population lives in areas where WHO air quality standards are met. Asthma and chronic respiratory disease are in decline. Microplastics are no longer leaked into the environment.
  • Infectious diseases are effectively managed through rapid and equitable treatment distribution. Pandemics are predicted and prevented. 50% of new variants and their spread rate are detected in real-time.

@NickOttens, Data Sharing with recent amendments in GDPR and other laws of the land are delaying the process to analyse the trends.

We have a Global Health Professionals Shortage and its getting Worse . As I wrote in one of my papers 7 years ago, I fielded the Idea of Health Care Professionals ( Doctors, NP’s, Nurses) NOT Administrators, be granted/issued a United Nations Passport with a Gold Caduceus on the front so they could freely travel to where they are in need in the world anytime or anyplace with no border or entry/exit visa hassles. This will Impact across the entire Health Care Domain. I believe the time has come for this. Is anyone working on this?

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Hi Lee,
Thanks for sharing your thoughts. The idea mentioned is great, but I see that even if someone try’s working on it, their would be Immense regulatory hurdle.

We are working on the following four prize designs in Health domain:

If you have inputs/feedback on any or all of these, please share it with us.

Hi Shashi
I would like to add what we are developing at the Exponential Creativitty course at UFMT about the subject
1-develop an injected nanochip sensor that would transmit in real time any alteration to our cells
it would monitor all health care parameters (sugar level, cholesterol, pressure etc ) witha single device and transmit the information to the patient (by smartphone or otehr devices ) and to a medical center where AI are taking care of monitoring any individual. In case of alterations at cell level the patient is called to the Med Cen and the altered cell is eliminated or treated to prevent any further diasease.
2-develop nanobots to reach altered cells and perform tretments (surgery, deliver chemicals or medicines ) to eliminate the alteration
3-domestic health care system by telemedicine with a patient health book cosntantly updated showing all parameters situationsm trends and critical possibilities to prevent disease
every individual would have such a data base, accessible through visual dashboards to himself or health care persons and institution taking care of him
such book would be updated constantly showing every treatment, medicine and more info
it would be stored on the cloud and be accessible online
4-Digital body model of every person, constantly updated , including scanners to show physical developments and critical spots, boochemical interaction with food, medicines environment etc
5-develop an environemntal sensors that preople can carry associating their conditions and relationshipos with the external environmental conditions
the goal of this system is to prevent any disease , detecting in real time any alteraion and acting in real time to eliminate it.
I believe that such system could be considered for an Xprize since iot includes the digital twin, health everywhere and optimizing home and more concepts.
The goal is to eliminate disease through knowledge
digital body models
digital disease models
digital treatment simulation utilizing disease, and body models and simulatimg treatments to optimize recommendation

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